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【政经一日闻】信用评级的力量
The political infighting in Washington took on global importance Thursday when the ratings agency Standard & Poor's released a report saying it would downgrade the world's largest economy's credit rating if a deal to raise its debt ceiling is not agreed on soon.在华盛顿酣战正欢的美国国会今日将国内的债务问题引申成为了国际问题，因为标准普尔近日宣布如果美国不能在债务问题上达成共识并且提高债务封顶，那么标准普尔将会降低美国这个全球最大经济体的债券信用评级。
This comes after similar warnings from Moody's and Finch -- who, along with S&P, are known as the "Big Three" global credit ratings agencies.这个来自标准普尔的警告和穆迪以及芬奇——另外两大信用评级公司的警告一模一样。
Meanwhile, European Union markets reeled this week after Moody's recent credit downgrades of Ireland, Greece and Portugal -- heightening fears that the EU debt crisis will hit the larger economies of Italy and Spain.与此同时，欧盟今日也疾呼穆迪对于爱尔兰、希腊和葡萄牙的信用评级降级将会直接导致这几个国家的经济危机波及到更大的经济体，如意大利和西班牙。
Government officials on both sides of the Atlantic have railed against the agencies. So how did the global economy become so dependent on the opinions of three companies?
Who are the credit rating agencies?大西洋两边的政府最近都对于这些信用评级机构猛烈抨击。那么现在问题来了，到底是什么原因让这些经济体如此依赖于这些信用评级公司的呢？这些信用评级公司到底是什么呢？
The "big three" are Standard's & Poor's, Moody's Investor Services and Fitch Ratings. All originated in the United States, although Fitch has dual headquarters in New York and London.这三大信用评级公司主要包括标准普尔，穆迪投资和芬奇评级。所有的这些公司都起源于美国，虽然芬奇在纽约和伦敦都有总部。
What do they do?他们平时干什么？
Before you can get a credit card, banks run a credit check on you. Similarly, the ratings agencies run credit checks on companies, countries and financial products.就好比在你获得一张信用卡的时候银行会审查你的信用一样。这些评级机构对于公司和政府以及金融产品的信用进行评级。
Countries are rated on a sliding scale: the U.S., for example, has a top rating (AAA) which allows it to borrow cash at cheap interest rates. The lower the rating grade, however, the higher interest payments a nation must pay to attract investors to buy its bonds. Anything that slips to junk status -- as Ireland, Portugal and Greek government bonds are rated -- is considered a "highly speculative" investment. Furthermore, the pool of eligible investors is reduced -- many institutional investors, such as government pension funds, are forbidden to invest in junk-rated bonds.对于国家的信用评级是浮动的：比如说美国，最高能够拥有3A级的信用评级，这就意味着它可以获得很低的借款利率。但是借款利率越低，这些国家就要付出越高的利息来吸引投资者投资这些国家的债券。任何类似于爱尔兰、希腊和葡萄牙的恶劣状况都会被认为是高度泡沫化的投资。而且，可用的投资来源也会进一步减少，这些投资来源可能包括机构投资者，类似于政府基金，这类投资源都不准向垃圾债券投资。
Why do they wield such power?为什么他们掌有这样的权利？
Investors across the world look to credit rating agencies to judge where to place their bets in the market. For governments, the ratings agencies have a lot of power over the popularity of bonds: cash given to governments by investors that, over time, will pay a return on the original investment -- unless the government defaults. The downgrade of Ireland this week signaled Moody's belief that Ireland has a higher likelihood to default on investments. And global investors have little appetite to invest in those bonds.投资人通过了解评级机构给出的评级来决定把自己的投资投向什么市场。对于政府而言，这些评级机构的报告会对其债券的受欢迎程度有很大的影响：投资者认为，这些投资给政府的现金会从长期带给投资者利润，除非政府逾期不还。这周穆迪对于爱尔兰的信用评级降级的意思就是穆迪认为爱尔兰很有可能会逾期无法偿还投资。全球的投资者都对于这种逾期不还的债券毫无兴趣。
What does a debt rating downgrade mean?信用降级意味着什么？
The decisions of the "Big Three" catalyze market moves in often unpredictable ways, creating a strong ripple effect. In the wake of the Greece downgrade last year, for example, investors across the globe started rethinking investment in other governments' bonds and began selling off more risky investments -- throwing the EU into crisis and depressing the value of the euro. There was a similar psychological ripple through the markets this week after Moody's recent downgrades of Ireland and Portugal -- it put the spurs to Italian lawmakers to pass deep cuts in government spending on Thursday and turning up the heat on Washington lawmakers to extend the debt ceiling.这三大公司的决定往往会催化市场产生一些难以预料的波动，产生很大的涟漪效应。去年，在希腊主权债务危机余波未平的时候，全球的投资者们就开始重新思考把自己的投资转向其他的政府并且大量卖出希腊这些具有风险的债券，这直接导致整个欧洲都被主权债务危机影响到，进而使得欧元贬值。同样的效果也产生在了近日的信用降级上，这些心里效应导致穆迪发出降级报告以后意大利立即通过了降低政府开支的法案，导致周四华府要求立法者提高赤字的上限。
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