我国出现6年来首次贸易逆差

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我国出现6年来首次贸易逆差

China's trade balance turned red (red在金融英语中意为财政赤字、亏损；如果是black则意味着财政增长) in March, the country's first monthly trade deficit (意为“贸易逆差”，还有另一种说法为unfavorable balance of trade；贸易顺差则是favorable balance of trade) in six years, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) said here Saturday.

China exported $112.11 billion of goods and services in March, up 24.3 percent year on year, while the imports surged 66 percent year on year to $119.35 billion , resulting in a trade deficit of $7.24 billion.

The March deficit was China's first since it posted a 2.26 billion deficit in April 2004, according to a report released by the GAC.

Combining imports and exports, China's foreign trade rose 42.8 percent year on year to $231.46 billion in March, revealed the customs statistics.

Taking the first three months together, China's Jan-March imports and exports rose 44.1 percent to $617.85 billion, still posting a trade surplus of $14.49 billion in the first quarter though it was sharply down 76.7 percent from the same period of last year.

The GAC attributed the March deficit to shrinking exports of labor intensive products, surging imports volumes and rising commodity prices.

"Neither is the deficit in March a recession, nor can it sustain," the GAC said in its report, adding the deficit was small and China has maintained a "basic balance" between imports and exports.

The GAC said the deficit accounted for only 3.1 percent of total imports and exports in March, a proportion much lower than the alarm level of trade imbalance at 10 percent.

"The March deficit stemmed mainly from the fast growth of imports by China amid its efforts to increase imports against the backdrop of global economic downturn," the GAC said. "And China's efforts (to expand imports) helped with the recovery of world economy and demonstrated its role as a responsible country."

The GAC predicted China's trade surplus might continue to scale down and keep a trade balance in the rest of the year.

Zhao Jinping, an economist and researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, anticipated China's exports growth would slow in the second quarter because the base was too low in the first quarter last year when the world was in the middle of the global financial crisis.

Zhao estimated exports growth of 10 to 15 percent for the year, while imports growth would be slightly faster as China's economy had taken the lead in the world recovery.

China would post an annual trade surplus similar to or slightly narrower than last year's, he said.

The country recorded a trade surplus of $196.1 billion last year, down 34.2 percent from 2008.

"We cannot be too optimistic and we still need in place those policies to stabilize external demand," he said.

According to the GAC figures, China's trade surplus with the United States dropped 3.5 percent year on year to $9.87 billion in March and that with the European Union also fell 13.1 percent to $6.96 billion.

However, China's trade deficit with Japan surged by more than three times over the same month of last year to $6.53 billion while its deficit with Republic of Korea jumped 76 percent to $6.13 billion in March.

The establishment of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area on January1, 2010 greatly boosted China's trade with the bloc, with ASEAN's trade surplus with China skyrocketing to $2.7 billion from $300 million last year.

The Chinese mainland's deficit with Taiwan amounted to $7.9 billion in March, up 78.7 percent year on year.

相关中文报道

《中国日报》4月12日报道：海关总署4月10日发布的数据显示，今年三月份，我国当月贸易逆差为72.4亿美元，是自2004年五月以来的首次月度贸易逆差。分析师普遍认为三月原材料和大宗商品进口数量和价格同时出现较大涨幅是产生逆差的主要原因，而贸易逆差未来并不会持续。

三月份进出口总值为2314.6亿美元，增长42.8%。其中出口1121.1亿美元，增长24.3%；进口1193.5亿美元，增长66%。

从地区来看，中国对美国和欧盟的贸易顺差分别比去年同期下降了3.5%和13.1%，但中国对日本的贸易逆差比去年同期大幅上升超过三倍。在今年1月1日正式启动的中国东盟自由贸易区的提振作用下，东盟地区对中国的贸易顺差从去年同期的3亿美元猛增至27亿美元。

海关总署表示，贸易逆差主要源于中国在全球经济衰退的背景下提高进口的努力和中国进口的快速增长。

今年三月，国内需求旺盛导致原材料进口数量和价格双双劲升。我国进口商品总价格同比上涨17.2％，进口数量增加41.7％，导致进口金额大增 66％。仅价格因素使进口增加174.7亿美元，占进口额增量的36.8％。

在投资需求的推动下，我国原油、铁矿砂、铜、成品油共拉动进口增长15.3%，其中数量贡献3.1个百分点，价格上涨拉动12.2个百分点。

随着国内经济的快速发展和居民消费结构的升级，进口汽车的需求激增。3月份我国进口汽车价值32.1亿美元，增长2.4倍；进口汽车零件 17.3亿美元，增长1.4倍。上述两项商品进口值合计比去年同期净增加32.7亿美元，相当于当月贸易逆差的45.2%。

海关总署的报告指出成本上升、外部市场恶化和春节因素导致的部分劳动密集型产品出口萎缩也是逆差出现的原因之一。

3月份，我国出口服装59.6亿美元，同比下降19.8%；鞋类19.5亿美元，下降6.5%；箱包8.2亿美元，下降16.6%；游戏机 4.8亿美元，下降43%。仅以上4类商品就比去年同期合计净减少21.3亿美元，相当于当期贸易逆差的29.4%。

黄国华说，通常春节后一个月是劳动密集产品的出口低潮，近期上扬的原材料和劳动力价格导致企业出口动力不足，同时国外的市场环境趋于恶化，美欧消费者信心不足，导致短期内劳动密集产品出口增长空间有限。"但是逆差规模与进出口总值的比仅3.1％，远低于10％的贸易失衡‘警戒线'。"

海关总署报告指出，三月份的逆差并非衰退性的，也不可持续。"3月份的贸易逆差是在出口也较快增长的基础上出现的，并不是出口衰退性的。而且从旬度走势来看，上旬逆差最大，为87.7亿美元，中旬逆差缩减为19.4亿美元，下旬已经出现34.7亿美元的顺差。"

黄国华认为，随着春节短期因素的消失，造成贸易顺差的外商投资和加工贸易等长期因素将起主导作用，预计贸易顺差将恢复并保持常态。

兴业证券首席宏观分析师董先安认为三月的贸易逆差仍然是偶然现象，其原因是国有企业在国内投资需求的推动下大规模进口价格迅速上涨的原材料和大宗商品。海关总署的数据显示，三月份国有企业名下的贸易逆差161.2亿美元，比去年同期净增加94.6亿美元，增长1.4倍。"这样的逆差不会持续下去，"他表示。

交通银行金融研究中心最新发布研究报告认为，我国三月份外贸数据六年来首现逆差主要是因为出口增速超低、基数效应消退及国际大宗商品的量价齐涨，但是外贸逆差可能只是个别月份特例，未来仍将以顺差为主。

海关总署也在报告中表示，中国的贸易顺差规模可能会继续缩减，外贸进出口发展将趋于基本平衡。

"中国从不刻意追求贸易顺差，将在稳定出口的同时积极扩大进口，促进对外贸易平衡、协调、可持续发展。"商务部发言人姚坚表示。他同时强调，当前我国贸易平衡状况持续改善，为人民币汇率保持基本稳定创造了条件。

而董先安等分析师认为"外界对于人民币汇率上升的压力不会通过三月份临时的、不可持续的贸易逆差而有所缓解"。

今年第一季度，中国的贸易顺差比去年同期下降76.7%至144.9亿美元，进出口总值增长44.1%至6178.5亿美元。

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